Vietnam and the 'Demographic Bonus'
on Brom's Blog (Vietnam), 05/Mar/2010 06:50, 34 days ago
One of the joys of volunteering is the ability to get involved with activities and events that would not be available to you in the UK, take for example a consultation workshop on Vietnam’s Population and Reproductive Health strategy for the next 10 years.Chaired by the leadership of the Ministry of Health and supported by UNFPA , the workshop provided an opportunity to share experience from around the region and opened up a whole new subject area for me…the interesting area of demographics!Here is a brief summary of some of the key questions, drawn from my notes and publicly available material….Vietnam, like many countries in Asia and S.E.Asia is at an advanced stage of its demographic transition, that is, there is a marked decline in mortality and fertility from the high rates characteristic of low-income countries to the low rates characteristic of high income societies. In short people are living longer and having less children.Currently Vietnam is entering a period of‘demographic dividend’ this means that for around 30 years there will be two or more persons of working age (15- 60 years) for every person of dependent age (under 15 or over 60 years old).In contrast developed economies such as those in Europe and Japan have moved beyond this stage in their transition, the UK left it around the year 2000. The‘baby boom’ generation, born at a time of declining mortality but high fertility, are passing through their working years and the old-age dependency ratio has begun to increase….did anyone hear me mention the words ‘pension crisis’ or ‘increased retirement age’?For Vietnam though the demographic bonus means that, for the next few decades, the working population will increase by 1 million people each year. Provided this workforce is healthy, educated and employment opportunities are available this bonus will give significant impetus to Vietnam’s growth, indeed some studies have indicated that as much as one third of growth in the ‘East Asia miracles’, such as South Korea and Singapore, can be attributed to the demographic bonus.This presents significant opportunities, but also challenges and Vietnam’s Population and Reproductive Health Strategy for 2011 -2020 is attempting to address these by asking the following questions:How can Vietnam maintain balanced fertility rates?Currently Vietnam has achieved a replacement level of 2.11 children per woman, in demographic terms an optimum level. However fertility rates are continuing to fall, due to better education and higher participation of women in the labour market, meaning they are having less children and later…If fertility rates fall to ultra-low levels ie. 1.35 this would result in 30 % of Vietnam’s population being over 60 by 2035. A situation that Japan is already struggling with!Further, evidence suggests that once fertility rates fall to such levels it is very difficult if not impossible to reverse, it is not just a simple question of telling people to have more children, policies need to be put in place to ensure women can have children and continue to having meaningful employment within the labour market. How can this be achieved?How can Vietnam accommodate further Population Growth?Even with below-replacement fertility rates, Vietnam’s population will grow by a further 10 million between 2011-2020, due to the high number of women of entering reproductive age, not because women are having more babies. This is known as population momentum. How can policy makers ensure that this population growth is accommodated in a positive way, rather than exasperating poverty and putting a strain on services?How can Vietnam manage rapid urbanization and migration?Most of this population growth will occur in large cities and this will be further exasperated by large scale rural to urban migration that is already taking place. How will this impact urban planning? If services and other amenities in cities deteriorate because of increased population this will significantly affect development, if you think the traffic is bad in Hanoi now then wonder what they will be like in 2020? How will Vietnam respond, for example the building of a new metro in Hanoi?How can Vietnam best promote reproductive health?The fact that fertility rates are now down to replacement levels does not mean that sexual and reproductive health programmes can be ignored. Weaknesses need to be addressed in addressing issues such as STI’s and in particular HIV/AIDS, which has greatest impact upon young people of working age, have the potential to diminish the demographic bonus. How should policy makers address unmet needs for sexual and reproductive health services, particularly amongst marginalized and disadavantaged groups such as gay men and other males who have sex with males (MSM) and ethnic minorities?How can Vietnam resolve the imbalance in Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB)?The imbalance in the sex ratio at birth has emerged as a major gender issue in recent years, currently it is at 112 male births to 100 female births, (the norm is 105). If this trend continues then it may significantly affect Vietnams demographic and sex structure in the next two decades. Scarcity of women could increase pressure on men to marry at younger age and cause a rising demand for sex work, with a subsequent increase in trafficking to respond to this imbalance. How should policy makers address this issue which is deeply embedded in cultural norms, such as a preference for sons, and which is itself rooted in gender inequality?How can Vietnam adjust to population ageing?Whilst ageing is not an urgent problem at the present time it needs to be considered now, if Vietnam is to avoid the issues that have arisen in other countries with low fertility rates and ageing populations. Policies that have encouraged smaller families, need to be reconciled with policies aimed at encouraging adults to assume responsibility for the welfare of their elderly parents. How can policy makers address such contradictions?Thinking about such questions helps us all to recognize that there are no simple answers in policy formation, but workshops such as this one help to share experiences, learn from others and provide an opportunity to participate in the development of sound policies and strategies.